The Depletion Protocol

The Depletion Protocol, was first proposed by Colin Campbell 10 years ago at a conference in London. It has surfaced in various guises since. Named the Uppsala Protocol in 2002, on the occasion of the First International ASPO's Workshop, it has later been also referred to as the Rimini Protocol. It can be found In: "The Truth about Oil and the Looming Energy Crisis", Colin Campbell (Eagle Print, Ireland, 2004). Here it is reproduced:

Introduction

It is obvious that the transition to declining oil supply will be a time of great international tension as consumers vie with each other for access to oil, and as oil prices soar, when capacity limits are breached. Normal market forces are ill-adapted to deal with this situation as the high prices represent profiteering from shortage by oil companies and producing governments as the cost of production does not rise materially. A strong case can therefore be made for managing the situation by government intervention through a depletion protocol.

In outline, such a protocol would require producers to limit production to their current depletion rate, namely annual production as a percentage of what remains, which is a small burden insofar than few can exceed this limit anyway. More important, it would require importers to limit their imports to match world depletion rate. This would have the effect of moderating world prices so as to put them in better relationship with actual cost preventing profiteering and the massive destabilizing financial flows that threaten the financial system. In humanitarian terms, moderating world prices would allow poor countries to afford their minimal needs.

The importing countries observing the protocol could manage their obligations in different ways as suited their environments, having strong incentives to cut waste, improve efficiency and bring in renewable energies to the extent possible. The mechanisms could include a combination of basic rationing, special tax treatment and normal market practices. Importing countries might decide to licence imports demanding to know the origin of the imports and imposing the right to audit the reserves of the fields concerned in order to determine the security of future supply.

If countries were to dedicate efforts to determine what the world depletion rate was, establishing the appropriate scientific procedures, the need for action would likely soon become self-evident.

Although desirable, complete compliance by all countries is not essential, as the countries that did adopt the principles of the Protocol would soon find themselves at a considerable advantage over those that continued to live in the past. Detailed negotiations are called for to settle matters of definition and the treatment of heavy oils and special situations, as well as providing for the equitable treatment of commercial interests. It might also be possible to integrate the procedures with current efforts to meet the threat of climate change attributed to emissions from fossil fuels, including oil and gas. The time to act is now, before the impact of depletion bites in earnest.

The Protocol

WHEREAS the passage of history has recorded an increasing pace of change, such that the demand for energy has grown rapidly in parallel with the world population over the past two hundred years since the Industrial Revolution;
WHEREAS the energy supply required by the population has come mainly from coal and petroleum, having been formed but rarely in the geological past, such resources being inevitably subject to depletion;
WHEREAS oil provides ninety percent of transport fuel, essential to trade, and plays a critical role in agriculture, needed to feed the expanding population;
WHEREAS oil is unevenly distributed on the Planet for well-understood geological reasons, with much being concentrated in five countries, bordering the Persian Gulf;
WHEREAS all the major productive provinces of the World have been identified with the help of advanced technology and growing geological knowledge, it being now evident that discovery reached a peak in the 1960s, despite technological progress, and a diligent search;
WHEREAS the past peak of discovery inevitably leads to a corresponding peak in production during the first decade of the 21st Century, assuming no radical decline in demand;
WHEREAS the onset of the decline of this critical resource affects all aspects of modern life, such having grave political and geopolitical implications;
WHEREAS it is expedient to plan an orderly transition to the new World environment of reduced energy supply, making early provisions to avoid the waste of energy, stimulate the entry of substitute energies, and extend the life of the remaining oil;
WHEREAS it is desirable to meet the challenges so arising in a co-operative and equitable manner, such to address related climate change concerns, economic and financial stability and the threats of conflicts for access to critical resources.

Now it is proposed that

1- A convention of nations shall be called to consider the issue with a view to agreeing an Accord with the following objectives:
    a) to avoid profiteering from shortage, such that oil prices may remain in reasonable relationship with production cost;
    b) to allow poor countries to afford their imports;
    c) to avoid destabilising financial flows arising from excessive oil prices;
    d) to encourage consumers to avoid waste;
    e) to stimulate the development of alternative energies.

2- Such an Accord shall have the following outline provisions:
    a) No country shall produce oil at above its current Depletion Rate, such being defined as annual production as a percentage of the estimated amount left to produce;
    b) Each importing country shall reduce its imports to match the current World Depletion Rate, deducting any indigenous production.

3- Detailed provisions shall cover the definition of the several categories of oil, exemptions and qualifications, and the scientific procedures for the estimation of Depletion Rate.

4- The signatory countries shall cooperate in providing information on their reserves, allowing full technical audit, such that the Depletion Rate may be accurately determined.

5- The signatory countries shall have the right to appeal their assessed Depletion Rate in the event of changed circumstances.