Hubbert's Peak

Introduction

The Hubbert peak, also known as "peak oil", is the result of a mathemical model that concerns the long-term rate of conventional petroleum and other fossil fuel extraction and depletion. It is named after American geophysicist Marion King Hubbert, who created a model of known reserves, and proposed, in 1956, in a paper he presented at a meeting of the American Petroleum Institute, that oil production in the continental United States would peak between 1965 and 1971. United States oil production peaked in 1970, and has been decreasing since then. Given that petroleum is a non-renewable resource, it is inevitable that at some point there will be a similar peak in worldwide petroleum production, from which point a long decline will follow. The exact date of peak will only be known after it is passed. Based on the available data on worldwide oil production ASPO projects to 2010 the peak of oil production and few decades later for natural gas. This will inevitably lead to enourmous consequences for the world given that modern civilization depends of cheap and abundant fossil fuels, especially for transportation, but also for for food production, chemical processing e production, water treatment, home heating and electricity generation.

ASPO currently projects the Peak of Oil and Gas to 2010

Hubbert's Model

Hubbert, a geophysicist, created a mathematical model of petroleum extraction which predicted that the total amount of oil extracted over time would follow a logistic curve. This implies that the predicted rate of oil extraction at any given time would be given by the rate of change of the logistic curve, which follows a bell-shaped pattern now known as the Hubbert curve. Given past oil production data and barring extraneous factors such as lack of demand, the model predicts the date of maximum oil production output for an oil field, multiple oil fields, or an entire region. This maximum output point is referred to as the peak. The period after the peak is referred to as depletion. The graph of the rate of oil production for an individual oil field over time follows a bell-shaped curve: first, a slow steady increase of production; then, a sharp increase; then, a plateau or "the peak"; and, finally, a steep decline.

When oil reserves are discovered, production is initially small, because all the required infrastructure has not been installed. As wells are drilled and more efficient facilities are installed, oil production increases. At some point, a peak output is reached that can not be exceeded, even with improved technology or additional drilling. After the peak, oil production slowly but increasingly tapers off. After the peak, but before an oil field is empty, another significant point is reached when it takes more energy to recover, transport and process a barrel of oil than the amount of energy contained in that barrel. At that point, Hubbert theorized that it is no longer worthwhile to extract petroleum for energy, and the field might be abandoned.

Hubbert's curve is a mathematical model of future oil production.

Hubbert's original formulations applied to a "theoretical, unconstrained province" and that the model must be adjusted if significant artificial impedances, such as political or environmental regulations are in effect.

Consequences of Hubbert's Peak

It is clear that any global decline in oil supply will have serious social and economic implications. Global economic growth is predicated upon cheap energy and oil contributes significantly to the worldwide energy pool. As energy supply declines so too will growth. This fact applies equally to individual organisms as it does to groups and societies. Therefore the timing of peak production is not as important as the consequent rate of decline.

World Energy consumption. Source: BP Statistical Review.

Initially a peak in oil production would manifest itself as structural worldwide oil shortage. This shortage would differ from shortages of the past because the fundamental cause is geological not political. While past shortages stemmed from a temporary insufficiency of supply, crossing Hubbert's Peak means that the production of oil continues to decline, and that demand must be reduced to meet supply. The effects of such a shortage depend on the rate of decline and the development and adoption of alternatives. If alternatives are not forthcoming, then the many products and services produced with oil become scarcer, leading to lower living standards in all countries. Scenarios range from doomsday scenarios to faith in the market economy and new technologies to solve the problem. In order to deal with those problems of peak oil Colin Campbell has proposed the Depletion Protocol.

It is unlikely that the actual peak in global oil production will be the direct catalyst of global economic decline. Instead, severe economic turbulence will be precipitated by the realization of the financial and investment world that "peak oil" (and natural gas) is a real phenomenon and is either imminent or already occurring. Significant indications of economic volatility have manifested themselves in the largest increase in inflation rates in 15 years (Sept. 2005), which were due mostly to higher energy costs. Since natural gas is the single largest feedstock (raw material) used to produce fertilizers, an increase in natural gas prices could provide further upward pressure on food costs in addition to the increase in the transportation component.

There are also political implications to "peak oil." In 1976 William Ophuls published "Ecology and the Politics of Scarcity." In this book, he posits that as the primary governmental systems of the Western world evolved during the 1700s through the 1900s, these systems experienced (and have come to assume) great natural abundance. Our governmental systems further assume (and depend upon) unlimited growth, and virtually unlimited natural resources, including oil and natural gas. The word "scarcity" is not welcome in contemporary political discourse. This fact hinders the ability of government to consider and mitigate the looming social and political problems associated with "peak oil."